March Madness: Alabama vs. North Carolina odds, picks and predictions
The 4th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (23-11) face the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (29-7) Thursday in a West Region Sweet 16 matchup. Tip-off from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles is set for 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Alabama vs. North Carolinaodds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Alabama, ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has advanced in the tournament with victories over Charleston and Grand Canyon. In the latter win, a 72-61 triumph covering as 5-point favorites Sunday, the Tide had to battle back from a 3-point deficit with 5:43 remaining.
North Carolina, tabbed as the national No. 4 in the coaches poll, has defeated Wagner and Michigan State. The Tar Heels' Saturday win over MSU was a sturdy 85-69 job, covering a 4-point spread. Since Feb. 17, UNC is 10-1 with an average margin of victory of 13.1 points.
UA and UNC have met twice in the last 5 years, both times in early-season tournaments on neutral floors. The Tar Heels won in 2019 in a contest played in the Bahamas. In 2022, Alabama nipped North Carolina 103-101 in an overtime contest played in Portland.
Alabama vs. North Carolina odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Alabama +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | North Carolina -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama +4.5 (-110) | North Carolina -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 173.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Alabama vs. North Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 85, Alabama 82
Moneyline
The lean here is on this being a close game, but UA is 1-9 straight up in its last 10 games as an underdog. Hold off on trying to cash on the Tide outright.
PASS.
Against the spread
The Crimson Tide are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.
Alabama looked to have been slumping in late February and early March, but its 2 tournament wins in this West bracket have been impressive.
Figure the public being a tad too high on the Tar Heels. While UNC has some systemic advantages (rebounding, free throws) in what figures to be a contest with a ton of possessions, its recent 3-point defense (39.6% last 3 games, 37.9% since Feb. 26) is a glaring issue against this fast-break, perimeter-launch Alabama 5.
On offense, Carolina can be goaded into taking too many mid-range, sub-optimal shots.
TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE +4.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
Look for solid handles on the basketball at both ends, and figure inside looks for UA -- normally a staple to be tougher to come by.
Both teams play fast. The Tide play exceedingly fast. And the only UNC-comparable defense they have seen in the SEC belongs to Tennessee. The O/U went 1-1 across UA and TU games in the regular season. The 2nd game was a drama-free Under; the 1st game hit the Over but only with some statistically unlikely transition and perimeter ball cranked out by the Volunteers.
BACK THE UNDER 173.5 (-110) in this one.
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