March Madness: Illinois vs. Iowa State odds, picks and predictions
The Iowa State Cyclones (29-7) battle the Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament Thursday at TD Garden in Boston. Tip is set for 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Illinois vs. Iowa Stateodds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Illinois, the No. 3 seed in the East Region, throttled the 13th-seeded Morehead State Eagles 85-69 in the 1st round despite taking a 1-point lead into the half. Illinois covered as an 11-point favorite in its first game since winning the Big Ten Tournament. The Fighting Illini then took down the 11th-seeded Duquesne Dukes 89-63, again covering as double-digit (10-point) favorites. Illinois was 17-12-2 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season and is 4-1 ATS in the postseason.
No. 2 seed Iowa State is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Cyclones beat the 15th-seeded South Dakota State Jackrabbits 82-65 in the 1st round and took down the 7th-seeded Washington State Cougars 67-56 in the 2nd round. ISU covered the spreads in both games -- as a 15.5-point and a 6.5-point favorite, respectively. The Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament prior to the NCAA Tourney, beating a No. 1 seed (Houston) in the Big 12 Championship Game. They went 19-10-2 ATS in the regular season and 5-0 ATS in the postseason.
Iowa State is No. 4 and Illinois is No. 10 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Illinois vs. Iowa State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:39 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Illinois +104 (bet $100 to win $104) | Iowa State -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Illinois +1.5 (-110) | Iowa State -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Illinois vs. Iowa State picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 76, Illinois 73
Moneyline
BET IOWA STATE (-125).
While the spread offers good value as well, this has all the makings of a close game, so taking the moneyline reduces some of that risk.
That said, in the last calendar month, the Cyclones have beaten BYU at home and have neutral-court wins over then-No. 1 Houston and No. 13 Baylor (a No. 3 seed). That's an impressive resume. They have turned it on as of late due to their extremely strong defense.
Iowa State ranks 34th in the country in opponents' effective field-goal percentage and has held 5 straight opponents to 65 or fewer. Only 3 teams (Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers) in the Big Ten (Illinois' conference) rank higher, and in those 5 regular-season games, the Fighting Illini are 4-1, yet have just 1 win by more than 5 points, a 76-58 Dec. 2 road victory over Rutgers, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State is significantly better than each, and the Fighting Illini struggled against those teams. Expect Illinois' red-hot offense to take a step back. The Illini did lose 2 of their last 5 on the road prior to postseason play.
Considering the trends and the strong Cyclones' defense, BACK IOWA STATE (-125).
Against the spread
PASS.
The moneyline for the favorite is preferred here.
Stream select live college basketball games and full replays:Get ESPN+
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 145.5 (-110).
Iowa State is 2-3 O/U in the postseason but have scored 76 or more in 3 of its last 5 games, so it has the ability to play at a fast pace and score efficiently.
Illinois scores efficiently as well and plays at one of the quickest paces in the country, scoring at least 85 in 4 straight games and hitting the Over in all 4. It sits 34th (62.0) of 362 programs in field-goal attempts per game. It was 21-10 O/U in the regular season.
While the Iowa State defense is strong, the pace of this game should be quick given Illinois' style of play. BACK OVER 145.5 (-110).
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X andlike us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin /
College Sports Wire: Men's hoops / Women's hoops / High School