March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks and predictions

We're down to the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and after the games Thursday and Friday, we'll be left with just 8 teams standing in the battle the national championship. We'll take a look at who the best underdogs are to target for the Sweet 16 slate.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best Sweet 16 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The schedule for Friday features the best underdogs. In fact, don't be surprised if that's where we have our lower seeds advancing to the Elite 8. All 4 of the No. 1 seeds are still alive, but I am expecting that will change before the weekend.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:12 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE +6.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 7:09 p.m. (CBS)

The Wolfpack are the lowest remaining seed in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the red-hot Wolfpack is the only double-digit seed left. And it wouldn't be surprising to see 11th-seeded NC State advance to the Elite Eight, as it is playing with a lot of confidence.

The Wolfpack won 5 games in 5 days to claim the ACC Tournament championship, and NC State has carried over the momentum into the Big Dance. NC State won 80-67 as a 5-point underdog against No. 6 seed Texas Tech in the 1st round, and it topped No. 14 seed Oakland 79-73 in overtime in an epic battle between double-digit seeds vying for Cinderella's slipper.

The Golden Eagles of Marquette roughed up Western Kentucky 87-69 in the 1st round and ousted Colorado 81-77 in the 2nd round, while the Buffaloes cashed as a 4.5-point underdog at most shops.

This is the 1st meeting since Dec. 5, 2009, when NC State won 77-73 as a 10-point underdog in Milwaukee. That isn't terribly important, as Wolfpack start D.J. Burns was 9 years old at the time. The 300-pound big man put up 24 points and 11 rebounds against Oakland, and he has averaged 16.6 PPG during the team's 7-game winning streak.

Marquette is just 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 games, and 4-4 ATS in the past 8 outings. The Golden Eagles could advance, similar to the Colorado game, but the Wolfpack should grab the cover as the underdog. They're on fire.

GONZAGA +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – Friday, 7:39 p.m. (TBS/truTV)

The Bulldogs were once considered a bubble team. There was a time Gonzaga's streak of making the NCAA Tournament appeared in jeopardy, but the Bulldogs racked up 13 wins in 14 games to close the regular season, and it is now 3-1 SU/ATS in 4 games in the postseason. And just like that, Gonzaga went from bubble team, to the verge of the Elite 8.

The Boilermakers breezed past No. 16 seed Grambling 78-50 and blasted No. 9 Utah State 106-67. That's a 33.5 PPG margin of victory in 2 NCAA Tournament games. Purdue has yet to really be tested, but you can expect all of that to change against the red-hot Bulldogs.

Purdue allowed teams to average 70.2 PPG, while allowing the opposition to hit 32.0% from behind the 3-point line. Gonzaga can more than hold its own on offense, going for 85.6 PPG, while hitting 51.9% from the field. If the Bulldogs can get their 3-pointers going, the Boilermakers could be in some trouble. Either way, this is a rather large spread, and Gonzaga is a live 'dog.

Stream select live college basketball games and full replays:Get ESPN+

DUKE +3.5 (+100) vs. Houston – Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Blue Devils lost 3 times in a 6-game stretch from Feb. 24-March 14, bowing out in their 1st game of the ACC Tournament to the aforementioned Wolfpack.

The Cougars picked up a 100-95 win in overtime against Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Houston blew a double-digit lead against A&M in the final 2 minutes, and the Aggies nearly shoved the Cougars out the door. Houston committed 28 fouls, sending the Aggies to the line 45 times, with Texas A&M hitting just 29 times, or 64%. If Houston is that loose in the foul department against Duke, it might end a different way.

The key here will be Duke's offense, which has averaged 80.2 PPG with 48.4% from the field, and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line, against Houston's defense. The Cougars allow just 56.9 PPG, with a 38.3% defensive field-goal percentage, and 30.2% from behind the 3-point line.

The way UH looked against A&M, it appears ripe for the picking by a red-hot Duke offense, which is coming off a 93-55 win over James Madison, a 32-win team. Duke hit 50% (14 of 28) from behind the 3-point line, while turning it over just 6 times against JMU. If it plays like that against Houston, a No. 1 seed could be going home.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X andlike us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin /

College Sports Wire: Men's hoops / Women's hoops / High School